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Survey of Electors Following the 42nd General Election

11. Trust in the Accuracy of the Election Results

Generally, electors felt that the election was run in a fair manner by Elections Canada, and they had a high degree of trust in the accuracy of the results in their riding.

11.1 Fairness of the Election

Generally, most (92%) respondents felt that Elections Canada ran the election fairly, with just over two-thirds (67%) indicating that they felt it was run very fairly, and an additional quarter (25%) stating that they felt it was run somewhat fairly. Aboriginal electors and younger adults were less likely to say that the election was run fairly by Elections Canada (Figure 11.1). Only two percent (2%) of electors said that the election was run somewhat unfairly, and one percent (1%) felt it was run very unfairly. A small proportion of electors (5%) was unsure or did not venture an opinion.

These results are quite similar to what was observed in the 2011 general election, with sixty-five percent (65%) of electors answering that they felt that the election was run very fairly, twenty-five percent (25%) somewhat fairly, two percent (2%) somewhat unfairly, and one percent (1%) very unfairly.

Figure 11.1: Electors' Perception of the Fairness with which Elections Canada Ran the Election

Figure 11.1: Electors' Perception of the Fairness with which Elections Canada Ran the Election
Text description of "Electors' Perception of the Fairness with which Elections Canada Ran the Election"

Base: Voters only.

  • Aboriginal Electors: There was little to no difference in the perception that the general election was conducted by Elections Canada in a fair manner among Aboriginal electors between 2011 and 2015 (84% and 86%, respectively). Aboriginal electors were less inclined to say that Elections Canada ran the election very fairly (57%) compared with non-Aboriginal electors (68%).
  • Age: Young adults (aged 18 to 34) were also less likely to say that Elections Canada ran the election very fairly compared with adults aged 35 or older (58% to 70%). However, young adults were more likely to say that Elections Canada ran the election somewhat fairly compared with older electors (33% to 21%).
  • Income: The majority of respondents in all income brackets indicated they felt the election was run fairly; however middle- ($40k–$80k) and higher-income ( >$80k) respondents were more likely to answer very fairly (69% and 72%, respectively) than lower-income (<$40k) respondents (59%).
  • Voting Behaviour: Respondents who voted were also more inclined than non-voters to say that the election was run very fairly (70%, versus 36%). One-fifth of non-voters (20%) answered that they did not know whether Elections Canada ran the election fairly.

11.2 Accuracy of Results in Ridings

For the results within their ridings, most (92%) respondents also had a high level of trust in the accuracy of the results, with just under two-thirds (65%) stating that they had a very high level of trust in the results, and just over a quarter (27%) stating that they had a somewhat high level of trust (Figure 11.2). The proportion of electors who reported a low level of trust in the accuracy of the election results was modest, with three percent (3%) having a somewhat low and two percent (2%) very low level of trust in the accuracy of the election. Aboriginal electors, younger adults and electors with a disability were less likely to trust the accuracy of results in their ridings.

The overall level of trust in the accuracy of the election result is higher than what was observed in the 2011 general election. In 2011, fifty-seven percent (57%) said that their level of trust was very high and thirty percent (30%) somewhat high. At the opposite, five percent (5%) said that their level of trust was somewhat low and two percent (2%) very low.Footnote 38

Figure 11.2: Trust in the Accuracy of the Election Results

Figure 11.2: Trust in the Accuracy of the Election Results
Text description of "Trust in the Accuracy of the Election Results"

Base: All voters.

  • Aboriginal Electors: The likelihood of trusting the accuracy of election results among Aboriginal electors improved from the 2011 election. In 2011, sixty-six percent (66%) of Aboriginal electors expressed trust in the accuracy of election results. The proportion of Aboriginal electors who trust the accuracy of election results increased to eighty-three percent (83%) in 2015. Aboriginal electors were significantly less likely to report having very high level of trust (48%) compared with non-Aboriginal electors (67%).
  • Age: While the majority of electors have trust in the accuracy of the election results, young adults (aged 18 to 34) were less likely to report having very high trust (53%, compared with 68% for adults aged 35 or older).
  • Electors with a Disability: Electors with a disability were also less likely to say that they have a very high level of trust in the accuracy of election result (55%) compared with electors without any disability (68%).
  • Income: Household income was also correlated with the level of trust in the election result. Electors from lower-income (<$40k) households were less likely to say that their level of trust is very high (53%) compared with electors from medium-income ($40k–$80k) households (66%) and higher-income (>$80k) households (74%).
  • Region: A higher proportion of electors living in Québec (57%) were less inclined to have a very high level of trust in the accuracy of the election results compared with electors in the rest of Canada (67%). Conversely, electors from the rest of Canada were less likely to say that they have a somewhat high level of trust in the accuracy of the election results (25%) when compared with Québec (35%). Therefore, the overall level of trust in the accuracy of the election results between Québec and the rest of Canada is not different (92% for both). The same can be said about electors living in the Territories, who were less likely to report having a very high level of trust in the accuracy of the election result (50%) when compared with other provinces (65%). There was not a sharp difference in the overall level of trust in the accuracy of the election between electors living in the Territories and those living in other provinces (88% and 92%, respectively).
  • Voting Behaviour: Voters were more likely to say that they have very high levels of trust in the accuracy of the election results (69%) than non-voters (33%).

Footnote 38 An indicator about trust in the election was also added in the 2011 survey of electors.