Survey of Electors following the December 3, 2018, By-election in Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes (Ontario)
Detailed Findings
I. Awareness of the By-election and Voter Information
Widespread awareness of December 3, 2018, federal by-election
Ninety-four percent of electors surveyed said they were aware that a federal by-election took place on December 3, 2018, in their riding of Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Ontario.
Awareness of the by-election was higher among:
- Electors aged 35 and older compared to younger electors. Specifically, those aged 55 and older were more likely (98%) than electors aged 18 to 24 (78%) and aged 25 to 34 (83%) to have been aware of the by-election. Electors aged 35 to 54 were more apt to be aware (95%) than those aged 25 to 34 (83%).
- University graduates (98%) compared to those with high school or less education (93%) and those with some post-secondary education (92%).
- Those who never or sometimes have to limit their daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue (95%) compared to those who often or always do (86%).
- Those who have high trust in the accuracy of the election results (96%) compared to those who have low trust (81%).
Moderate recall of Elections Canada advertising
A split sample was used to test recall of Elections Canada advertisements for the December 3, 2018, federal by-election. One subset of respondents (n=208) was asked if they recalled any advertising or communications from Elections Canada about when, where and the ways to vote, a question used in previous post-electoral phone surveys. The other subset (n=192) was asked the same question, after they were asked about recall of political advertising by candidates or parties and media coverage of the by-election.
In both samples, a majority of electors recalled advertisements (56% and 63%, respectively). However, the second formulation resulted in a higher proportion of respondents expressing recall.
Traditional media and VIC were main sources of recall
Electors mostly recalled the following kinds of advertising or communications from Elections Canada about the December 3, 2018, by-election:
- newspaper (31%)
- VIC (23%)
- radio (23%)
- Facebook (17%)
- EC householder (16%)
Eight percent mentioned candidates and political parties. Other sources were identified infrequently (5% or less) and included YouTube, other websites, Instagram, EC web ads, Twitter, word of mouth, and the Elections Canada website.
As in previous by-election surveys, a number of respondents said they recalled seeing EC ads on television when there were no such ads during the by-election. This recall could be due to several factors, including confusion with other electoral communications, such as partisan advertising or news reports about the by-election.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Women (25%) were more likely than men (8%) to say they recalled advertisements or communication about the federal by-election via Facebook.
- Electors aged 55+ (41%) were more likely to have read about the by-election in a newspaper compared to younger electors (7% of those 18–24, 9% of those 25–34 and 24% of those 35–54).
- Electors aged 55+ (10%) were less likely to say they recalled advertisements or communication about the federal by-election via Facebook than younger electors (44% of those 18–24, 18% of those 25–34 and 22% of those 35–54).
- Those who are employed were more likely to:
- have heard about the federal by-election on the radio than those who are retired (29% compared to 16%)
- have recalled advertisements or communication about the federal by-election via Facebook than those who are retired (21% compared to 9%)
Strong majority felt informed about how, when and where to vote
A substantial majority of respondents aware of the by-election (86%) felt informed about how, when and where to vote for the December 3, 2018, federal by-election, with nearly three-quarters (72%) saying they felt very informed.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Those who voted in the by-election (97%) and those who received their VIC (95%) were more likely to feel informed about the federal by-election than those who did not vote (65%) and who did not receive their VIC (27%).
- Those who have a high level of trust in the election outcome (90%) were more likely to feel informed than those who have a low level of trust (50%).
In addition, the following respondents were more likely to feel very informed:
- women (77%) compared to men (66%)
- electors aged 55+ (80%) compared to those between the ages of 18 and 24 (46%), 25 and 34 (55%) and those between the ages of 35 and 54 (69%)
Few used EC's website, but those who did were satisfied with the information
Just over 1 in 10 electors who were aware of the by-election (12%) said they visited the Elections Canada website during the campaign. Of those who visited Elections Canada's website, 9 in 10 were satisfied with the information provided on the website, with just over half saying they were very satisfied. By contrast, 1 in 10 who visited the site expressed some level of dissatisfaction with the information on it.
Respondents who have a high level of trust in the election outcome (13%) were more likely to visit Election's Canada website than those who have a low level of trust (4%).
Few contacted EC, but majority of those who did were satisfied with the information
Few of the electors aware of the by-election (4%) said they contacted Elections Canada during the campaign. Most of those who did (86%) were satisfied with the information they received. Caution should be exercised in interpreting these results due to the small number of respondents (n=15).
Electors who voted at an advance polling station (11%) were more likely to contact Elections Canada during the campaign than those who voted on election day (2%).
II. Voter Information Card and Registration
Majority received a Voter Information Card
A substantial majority of those who were aware of the federal by-election (87%) said they received their voter information card.
The likelihood of saying they received a VIC was higher among:
- respondents aged 55+ (93%) compared to respondents between 25 and 34 years of age (70%) and 35 to 54 years of age (83%)
- electors who completed university (91%) compared to those with high school or less education (81%)
- those who voted in the by-election (96%) compared to those who did not (69%)
- those who felt informed (95%) compared to those who did feel uninformed (27%)
- those who have a high level of trust in the election outcome (89%) compared to those who do not (66%)
- electors who voted in the 2015 federal general election (90%) compared to those who did not (63%)
Nearly all electors who received a VIC reported it had the correct name (98%) and address (96%).
9 in 10 brought their VIC to Vote
9 in 10 electors (91%) who voted at an Elections Canada office, advance poll, or polling station on election day said they brought their VIC with them.
7 in 10 electors who did not receive a VIC did nothing to find out if registered
7 in 10 electors who did not receive a VIC during the campaign (71%) did nothing to find out whether they were registered to vote in the federal by-election. Most people who took action to find out if they were registered did so at the polling station or the local Elections Canada Office (9%). A small number of electors used the Online Voter Registration Service on the Elections Canada website (3%), consulted the Elections Canada website (2%) or called the 1-800 Elections Canada phone number (2%) to find out if they were registered to vote.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Electors between the ages of 35 and 54 were more likely to do nothing to find out if they were registered to vote (86%) than those between the ages of 25 and 34 (40%).
- Electors who felt uninformed about when, where and the ways to vote were more likely to do nothing to find out if they were registered (85%) than those who felt informed (39%).
Three-quarters of electors know they need to be registered to in order to vote
Three-quarters of electors (74%) said they knew that they need to be registered in order to vote in a Canadian federal election. Fourteen percent said they did not need to be registered and twelve percent were unsure.
The likelihood of knowing that electors need to be registered on the list of electors to vote in a Canadian federal election was higher among:
- electors aged 55+ (80%) compared to electors between the ages of 25 and 34 (63%)
- those who have a high level of trust (76%) in the results compared to those who are unsure about their level of trust in the results (45%)
Further, electors who completed university were more likely to incorrectly answer "No" to this question (23%), compared to electors with a high school degree or less (8%) and electors with some post-secondary or college (13%).
7 in 10 were aware they can register at the polling place and vote immediately
7 in 10 (70%) were aware that electors can register at the polling place and then vote immediately after.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
- Those between the ages of 18 and 24 (90%) were more likely to be aware that electors can register at the polling place and vote immediately compared to those between the ages of 25 and 34 (60%), 35 and 54 (70%) and electors aged 55+ (68%).
- Electors with a high level of trust in the accuracy of the election outcome (73%) were more likely to correctly answer yes than those who have a low level of trust (50%) and those who were unsure about their level of trust in the election outcome (38%).
- Those who voted at the 2015 federal general election were more likely to correctly answer yes (73%) than those who did not vote (58%).
Most Canadians aware of the Online Voter Registration Service
A split sample was used to test awareness of online registration.Footnote 1 Half the respondents (n=183) were asked if electors could use an "online voter registration service on EC's website," a question previously used in post-electoral phone surveys. As this question has always yielded a high proportion of "don't know" answers, a simplified formulation was developed and asked to the other half (n=217) of the sample (see precise wording of questions in the graph below).
While a majority of electors expressed awareness of this option regardless of the formulation of the question, the size of the majority varied. As the graph below indicates, a bare majority (51%) claimed to be aware when asked, "To the best of your knowledge could electors use an online voter registration service on Elections Canada's website to check, update or complete their voter registration during the last by-election?" By contrast close to two-thirds (63%) claimed to be aware when asked, "To the best of your knowledge is it possible for Canadian electors to check, update or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website?"
The results of this split sample test confirm that the second formulation of the question is easier to understand, as it resulted in a smaller proportion of respondents who indicated they did not know. The effect of question wording was less pronounced in this survey than in other instances.
Regardless of question formulation, respondents aged 55+ were more likely to say they did not know the answer to this question (41% for combined questions, 45% for the standard question and 37% for the simplified wording) compared to respondents between the ages of 18 and 24 (11% for combined questions, 11% for the standard question and 10% for the simplified wording).
III. Voting and Voter Participation
Two-thirds of electors reported voting in the by-election
Two-thirds of electors who were aware of the by-election said they voted in it.
The likelihood of voting was higher among:
- electors aged 55+ (77%), compared to electors aged 18 to 24 (49%), electors aged 25 to 34 (39%) and electors aged 35 to 54 (59%)
- electors who completed university (73%) than electors with high school or less education (60%)
- electors who felt they were informed about when, where and the ways to vote (74%) compared to electors who felt they were uninformed (11%)
- those who received their VIC (73%) compared to those who did not (19%)
- those who had a high level of trust in the accuracy of the election outcome (69%), compared to those who do not (31%)
- those who voted in the 2015 federal general election (72%) compared to those who did not vote (28%)
Everyday life or health reasons are main reasons for not voting in the election
Among respondents who said they did not vote in the by-election (n=125), nearly half (47%) said they did not vote due to everyday life and health reasons. In addition, one-quarter reported not voting due to political reasons and 7% for reasons related to the electoral process. The "Other reasons" category included forgetting to vote, religious reasons and not wanting to vote, among others.
Notable subgroup differences include:
- Electors who received their voter information card were less likely to cite reasons related to the electoral process (1%) and more likely to cite political reasons as a reason for not voting (27%), compared to those who did not receive their VIC (12% cited political reasons, and 24% cited reasons related to the electoral process).
- Electors who felt informed about when, where and the ways to vote were less likely to cite reasons related to the electoral process (3%) compared to those who did not feel informed (17%).
The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the reasons why respondents did not vote during the December 3, 2018, federal by-election.
Figure 16: Main Reasons for not Voting – Breakdown
Reasons for Not Voting | % |
---|---|
Everyday life or health reasons | 47% |
Too busy | 22% |
Illness or disability | 14% |
Out of town | 11% |
Political reasons | 25% |
Did not like candidates/parties/campaign | 10% |
Not interested in politics | 7% |
Felt voting would not make a difference | 4% |
Lack of information about campaign issues and parties' positions | 3% |
Did not know who to vote for | 2% |
Electoral process–related reasons | 7% |
Lack of information about voting process (e.g. when/where to vote) | 4% |
Not on voters list | 3% |
Transportation problem/polling station too far | Less than 1% |
Other reasons | 18% |
Forgot to vote | 10% |
Religious or other beliefs | 1% |
Other reasons | 7% |
[Dk/nr: 3%]
Notable subgroup differences include:
- Electors aged 55+ were more likely not to vote due to illness or disability (23%) compared to of electors aged 25 to 34 (5%).
- Electors who are currently employed were more likely to say they were too busy to vote compared to electors who are retired (31% compared to 5%).
- Electors who felt very informed about when, where and ways to vote were more likely to forget to vote (14%) compared to those who did not feel informed (3%).
Nearly half of the respondents who said they were out of town (n=12) Footnote 2 during the election were away due to work commitments (45%), while the other half (55%) were away for personal reasons. Further, most respondents who said they were out of town were away due to personal reasons or due to work. Additionally, most of those who were out of town during the election (78%) had previously planned their trip.
Of the respondents who were too busy to vote (n=28)Footnote 3, exactly half said they simply had other priorities that day. One-quarter said they do not have time in their daily schedule to vote, and the rest (18%) had unexpected plans which deterred them from voting.
Electors are aware of various voting methods
More than 9 in 10 respondents (93%) said they were aware that electors could vote at advance polling stations. Awareness that it is possible to vote at the local Elections Canada office was less widespread (60%). Only one-third (33%) were aware that electors can vote by mail, with a substantial minority (41%) under the impression that this is not possible.
Notable subgroup difference includes the following:
- Awareness of the possibility of voting at an advance polling station was higher among:
- men (96%) than women (90%)
- electors who completed university (98%) compared to electors with high school or less education (89%) and electors with some post-secondary education (93%)
- those who were aware of the by-election (94%) compared to those who were not (34%)
- electors who received their VIC (96%) compared to those who did not (82%)
- electors who felt they were informed about the by-election (96%) compared to those did not (83%)
- those with a high level of trust in the outcome of the election (95%), compared to those who have a low level of trust (77%)
- electors who voted in the 2015 federal general election (96% compared to 86% of those who did not)
- Awareness of the possibility of voting by mail was higher among electors between the ages of 18 and 24 (62%) compared to electors between the ages of 25 and 34 (33%), electors between the ages of 35 and 54 (30%) and electors aged 55+ (28%).
Over two-thirds of electors voted at a polling station on election day
Over two-thirds (69%) of electors who said they voted in the by-election reported doing so at a polling station on election day, while over one-quarter (26%) reported going to an advance polling station to vote. Few (2%) reported voting at a local Elections Canada office.
Electors who voted on election day were more likely to:
- be between the ages of 35 and 54 (82%) than aged 55+ (66%)
- have high school or less education (76%) or some post-secondary or college education (74%) than to have completed university (56%)
- be living alone (79%) or from a three-person household (76%) than those living in a two-person household (61%)
Electors who voted at an advance polling station were more likely to be:
- aged 55+ (31%) than 35 to 54 years of age (13%)
- university graduates (43%) than to have high school or less education (19%) or some post-secondary or college education (19%)
- living in a two-person household (35%) than living alone (19%) or living in a three-person household (20%)
IV. Voter Identification
Widespread awareness of identification requirements
A split sample approach was used to enquire about awareness of identification requirements. Traditionally, post-electoral surveys ask respondents whether or not they need a proof of identity to vote, and then the question is repeated for proof of address. In previous post-electoral surveys, this formulation resulted in very high awareness levels for both requirements. However, survey pre-tests suggested that some respondents did not perceive a difference between the two (i.e., between proof of address and proof of identity). Thus, a second version of this question was developed, asking respondents whether, to the best of their knowledge, electors need proof of identity, proof of address, both, or none. The two formulations were compared using the aforementioned split sample experiment.
As has been the case with previous surveys, the first formulation found that virtually all respondents think that electors have to present a proof of identity (98%) or a proof of address (93%) in order to vote in a Canadian election (in both cases, with 2% saying they do not know).
Of those asked the second formulation, 86% correctly responded that both proof of identity and address are required to vote in a Canadian federal election. 1 in 10 (11%) indicated that only proof of identity was needed, 1% that only proof of address was needed, and less than 1% that neither was needed.
The results of this split sample test confirm those of the three previous by-election survey results.Footnote 4 Furthermore, these results suggest that the new formulation leads to results that better reflect respondents' grasp of identification requirements.
Virtually all voters found it easy to meet the identification requirements
Virtually all respondents who voted in the by-election found it easy to meet the identification requirements, with the vast majority (94%) describing it as very easy.
V. Voter Experience
Virtually all voters found it easy to vote
Nearly all respondents who voted in the by-election (97%) claimed it was at least somewhat easy to vote, with a substantial majority (88%) saying it was very easy.
Virtually all agree that facilities were suitable and had enough signs
Nearly all respondents who voted in the by-election (97%) said the polling station, advance polling station or Elections Canada office was a convenient distance from their home.
Similarly, virtually all respondents who voted in the by-election (99%) said the building where they voted was at least somewhat suitable, with 87% saying it was very suitable. In addition, nearly all those who voted (96%) said there were enough signs within the facility to help them find where to go for voting.
Voters were most likely to vote during the evening
Half of all voters surveyed, n=241, reported voting between 4 p.m. and 8:30 p.m.
Of the voters who voted on election day (n=175), one-quarter reported doing so in the morning (from the opening of the polls at 8:30 a.m. until noon), 19% said they voted in the afternoon (between noon and 4 p.m.), and exactly half claimed to have voted in the evening (from 4 p.m. until the closing of the polls at 8:30 p.m.).
Nearly three-quarters (71%) of those of voted at an advance polling station (n=66) on November 23 to 26, 2018, reported doing so in the afternoon (between noon and 4 p.m.).
Majority of voters took five minutes or less to vote
Approximately three-quarters (74%) of all respondents who voted in the by-election said voting took them five minutes or less, with most of the rest saying it took them somewhere between 6 and 15 minutes.
Among those who voted at an advance polling station, 60% said it took them less than five minutes to vote. In comparison, 78% of those who voted on election day indicated that it took them less than five minutes to vote.
Ninety-five percent (95%) of voters found the time taken to vote to be reasonable. Those who voted on election day were more likely to say that the time it took them to vote was reasonable (98%) compared to those who voted at an advance poll (87%).
Virtually all voters were satisfied with Elections Canada staff
Nearly all respondents who voted in the by-election (97%) were satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff (with 93% saying they were very satisfied).
Reasons given for low satisfaction with services had to do with the perception of an inefficient system for processing voters, the lack of bilingual services, services perceived as being overly strict, and having to wait for a senior staff member to get answers.
All voters were satisfied with the service they received in their chosen official language.
Virtually all were satisfied with their voting experience
Nearly all respondents who voted in the by-election (98%) were satisfied with their overall voting experience (with 85% saying they were very satisfied).
VI. Fairness and Trust
Most perceive Elections Canada ran the by-election fairly
Two variations of a question about the fairness of how Elections Canada runs federal by-elections were asked to respondents. Half of the respondents were asked the following question: "Thinking about the December 3, 2018, federal by-election, would you say that Elections Canada ran the election...?" The other half was asked, "Thinking about federal by-elections in general, would you say that Elections Canada runs elections...?"
The more specific formulation (i.e. focusing on the specific by-election) found a substantial majority of respondents (82%) thinking that Elections Canada ran the election fairly (with 68% saying very fairly), and a fairly high proportion of respondents who did not know (16%). The more general formulation resulted in a larger majority (91%) saying that Elections Canada runs elections fairly (65% saying very fairly). The results of the more general formulation also yielded a noticeably lower proportion of electors saying they did not know (3%).
Majority trusts the accuracy of by-election results
A split sample approach was also used to survey respondents about trust in the accuracy of the by-election results. As in previous waves of the survey, respondents were asked, "What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding?" In the current wave of the survey, a subset of respondents (n=198) was asked a similar question, "What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results?" but it was prefaced by the following preamble: "At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada."
As the accompanying graph indicates, both formulations of the question yielded similar overall results. However, respondents who were asked the question without the preamble, and with "your riding" explicitly identified, were more likely to express a very high level of trust (61%) than those who were asked the version prefaced by the preamble but without "your riding" explicitly identified (54%).
Footnote 1 Post-election surveys following the three previous by-elections (October 23, 2017, December 11, 2017 and June 18, 2018) also included this split sample test.
Footnote 2 Exercise caution interpreting these results due to the small sample size.
Footnote 3 Exercise caution interpreting due to the small sample size.
Footnote 4 By-election surveys were conducted following by-elections held on October 23, 2017, December 11, 2017 and June 18, 2018.