Site MenuSurvey of Electors Following the40th General Election
I. Introduction
A. Background
Elections Canada is an independent agency, reporting directly to the Parliament of Canada, with responsibility for conducting all federal general elections, by-elections and referendums. Among its broad range of responsibilities as an enforcement body, monitoring organization and delivery agent with respect to federal electoral activity, the agency is also charged with informing citizens about the electoral system and reporting back to Parliament on the administration of elections and referendums.
In carrying out its mandate and mission to provide Canadians with an accessible and modern electoral process, the agency faces significant challenges and opportunities. Canada's vast geographic footprint, ethno-cultural diversity and high rates of inter-provincial mobility pose formidable challenges in ensuring that the more than 23 million registered electors are provided with timely information and a convenient opportunity to cast their votes.
The challenges for Elections Canada have increased considerably over the past few years. With a minority government resulting from the past two general elections, Elections Canada has had to maintain a state of readiness for a general election that could happen at any time, over two electoral cycles. At the same time, the agency has had to implement a number of changes and new programs in an ongoing effort to improve its administration of electoral events and encourage voter turnout and participation. The most significant of these is the requirement for voter identification. New requirements stipulate that to be eligible to vote, citizens must produce proof of identity and proof of their home address.
B. Research Objectives
Following the 40th general election on October 14, 2008, Elections Canada undertook a telephone survey of Canadians, both those who voted in the recent federal general election and those who did not. The overall purpose of the research was to provide further input into the evaluation and refinement of Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate and the development of the Chief Electoral Officer's report to Parliament and build upon the learning from the 2006 results. Of special importance for the survey of the 40th general election was to assess the impact on the electoral process of new voter identification requirements introduced for this election.
In addition, as part of its mandate to ensure access to the electoral process for all Canadians, Elections Canada uses this research to examine the impact of its initiatives on voter participation among Aboriginal, youth electors, and for the first time, visible minorities and immigrants, as a means to identify any issues relating to their participation in the electoral process. Findings from the 39th general election indicated that the participation of both youth and Aboriginal Canadians was lower than for the public overall. Issues relating to improving the participation of these two groups were explored in the survey of the 40th general election. In addition, provision was made in the research design to ensure that a large sample of non-voters was also interviewed and that the attitudes and perceptions of this group would be explored and analysis undertaken on the barriers to voting experienced or perceived by non-voters.
More specifically, the survey was designed to:
- Evaluate electors' knowledge and attitudes concerning various aspects of the electoral process;
- Evaluate electors' knowledge of, and attitudes toward, Elections Canada's programs and services specifically;
- Assess impressions of the new identification requirements and their impact on voting behaviour;
- Assess electors' experience of the 40th general election with respect to registration and polling stations;
- Identify any barriers to voting among non-voters;
- Gain insights into electoral participation among youth, Aboriginal electors and electors from visible minority and immigrant communities; and
- To the extent possible, track changes since the 39th general election in 2006.
C. Research Methodology
The survey consisted of telephone interviews conducted with a representative sample of 3,348 Canadian electors between October 22 and November 17, 2008. The sample consisted of a representative national sample of 2,500 eligible electors (Canadian citizens 18 years of age or older) and 848 electors oversampled to meet pre-determined quotas of 500 Aboriginal electors, 500 youth aged 18 to 24 and 500 immigrant/visible minorities. Overall, 627 non-voters are included in the sample. The national representative sample can be expected to provide results that are accurate within plus or minus 1.96 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.
The following table sets out the sample size and margin of error for each sub-sample:
| Base sample | Oversampled | Total | Margin of error | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National RDD sample | 2,500 | 0 | 2,500 | +/- 1.96% |
| Youth oversample | 133 | 367 | 500 | +/- 4.38% |
| Aboriginal oversample | 99 | 401 | 500 | +/- 4.38% |
| Ethno-cultural oversample | 420 | 80 | 500 | +/- 4.38% |
| Voters | 2,404 | 0 | 2,404 | +/- 2.04% |
| Non-voters | 944 | 0 | 944 | +/- 3.25% |
D. Report Synopsis
This report begins with an executive summary outlining key findings and tying together the results of each subsequent section. The following sections consist of detailed findings from the survey data. Each section in the detailed findings examines results on the national level followed by breakouts by key regional, demographic and behavioural/attitudinal factors. Further, each section examines the results from the Aboriginal, youth and immigrant/visible minorities oversamples and discusses how the sub-groups differ from each other and from electors overall. At each level of the analysis, where the same or similar questions are asked, the 2008 results are tracked versus the results from the 39th general election survey in 2006 to examine how opinion, attitudes and behaviour differ two years later.